Photo Credit : ESPN

We’ve reached American Thanksgiving, the unofficial checkpoint for seeing how teams measure up in the NFL and the start of real meaningful football as teams fight for playoff spots. The NFC is as tight as ever, and the Seattle Seahawks find themselves in the thick of it, only one game behind the Los Angeles Rams for the first seed. In Week 13, they will face the Minnesota Vikings, who will be without quarterback JJ McCarthy, as he hasn’t cleared concussion protocol. Rookie Max Brosmer will likely make his first career NFL start against a Seattle defense that’s top-10 in points and yards allowed.

The Seahawks are coming off a six-point win against the Tennessee Titans, led by Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s monster day, totaling 167 yards and two touchdowns. Smith-Njigba isn’t the only star pass catcher in this matchup; the Minnesota Vikings still have Justin Jefferson who, even in a “down year” with all of the Vikings’ quarterback problems, is still one of the NFL’s premier receivers.

Seattle has been banged up on the defensive side of the ball for the majority of the season, the biggest loss being safety Julian Love. The Seahawks added to their safety depth by reuniting with Quandre Diggs and signing him to the practice squad after Ty Okada went down with an injury last week. Diggs played for the Seahawks from 2019–2023 and was a three-time Pro Bowler (2020–2022). It’s uncertain how much playing time Diggs will receive, but he’ll add a great veteran presence to the locker room.

Perhaps the biggest storyline going into this game is that Sam Darnold is facing his former team for the first time. Darnold’s resurgence kicked off last year in Minnesota, where he led the Vikings to 14 wins, threw 35 touchdowns, and made the first Pro Bowl of his career. The Vikings ultimately let Darnold walk in free agency in favor of McCarthy. This was a game many people had circled when the schedule first came out because of the storyline, but it’s still a huge game for the Seahawks nevertheless. Seattle sits at 8–3 and has a very difficult schedule down the stretch, emphasizing the importance of every game.

As always, here are my three keys for a Seahawks win.

Stop Justin Jefferson

As I mentioned, Jefferson is one of the best receivers in the NFL, if not the best. He is the main focal point of the Vikings’ offense and has had the Seahawks’ number throughout his career. Just last year, he torched the Seahawks secondary for 10 catches, 144 yards, and two touchdowns. In his career, he has 22 catches for 285 yards and three touchdowns against Seattle. I don’t care who the quarterback is for Minnesota, Jefferson is the type of receiver who can take over a game, and the Seahawks are going to need to bring their A-game to contain him.

Be better in the red zone

I’ve said this in my past few articles,the Seahawks’ red zone offense is holding them back. It starts with the play calling, then goes to the decision-making by Sam Darnold, and finally the execution. The Seahawks are still a great team, obviously,  but their red zone offense is what’s stopping them from being an elite team. In order to win football games, especially in the playoffs, they need to turn their red zone trips into six points, not three. Seattle’s touchdown percentage in the red zone is 61%, but in their last three games it’s only 41%. If the Seahawks want to win, they need to convert in the red zone. I cannot stress this enough.

Convert on third down

Along with their red zone struggles, the Seahawks offense needs to convert better on third down. Last week in Tennessee, they went just 2/7 on third down. Teams that win tight games late in the season are often the ones who win the battle on third down and extend drives. Whether it’s third-and-long or third-and-short, the Seahawks need to find ways to convert. It’s going to be crucial not only this week but moving forward.

I expect Sam Darnold to play well against his former team, especially with the Seahawks at home. Anytime a team is without its starting quarterback, it’s at a disadvantage  I don’t care how good the team around him is. If the Seahawks follow my three keys to the game, they should have a successful Sunday.

Score prediction: Seattle Seahawks 33, Minnesota Vikings 20

With the NFC playoff race as tight as ever, this game is going to be huge in the standings. Kickoff is at 1:05 at Lumen Field in Seattle.