Background

This is a look at the best-of-7 series between the seventh seed Tri-City Americans (32-29-6-1) and the second seed Victoria Royals (40-17-4-7) of the Western Conference in a first-round clash. It will be interesting with both sides playing extremely different brands of hockey as the Americans play a very loose style of play with the dump and chase, while Victoria loves possession.

Victoria has had a season to remember, winning 40 games and the B.C. Division in the last weekend of the regular season. The last time Victoria won the B.C. Division was back in 2015/16.

For Tri-City, the regular season was an absolute roller coaster. From winning twelve games in a row and being at the top of the league in early November, to coming back from the Eastern Conference Road Trip and falling down the table ever since then. Tri-City has shown that at their best, they can compete with anybody; however, can the Americans regain that form they had during that twelve-game run.

The only prior matchup between the two teams in the playoffs came back in the 2018 WHL Playoffs when the Tri-City Americans were also the seventh seed and went on a run to the Western Conference Finals. The two sides met in the second round, and Tri-City swept the Royals in four games. In fact, the 2018 WHL playoffs was the last time that Tri-City has even won a playoff series.

During the season-series this year though it has been all Victoria. The only win for Tri-City against the Royals was a 5-4 win on the second night of the WHL Regular season, as Tri-City went 1-2-1 during the season series. In the two games following the trade deadline at home for Tri-City, the Americans would fall 6-2, and 9-1 to Victoria.

Schedule

The series is set for a 2-3-2 format which can benefit the Americans significantly. Tri-City has always played their best hockey at home and is one of the toughest places to play for a road team when the arena is packed. So, if the Americans could split the first two games in Victoria, they could look to take a series lead before heading back to Victoria, but it will not be easy.

Tri-City faced the same format back in the 2023 WHL Playoffs when going against the B.C Division’s Prince George Cougars. Tri-City dropped that series in the sixth game in overtime.

Here’s a look at what the seven-game schedule looks like for the series between the Royals and Americans.

Game 1: @ Victoria, Friday, March 28, 7:05 p.m. PT
Game 2: @ Victoria, Saturday, March 29, 6:05 p.m. PT
Game 3 @ Tri-City, Tuesday, April 1, 7:00 p.m. PT
Game 4: @ Tri-City, Wednesday, April 2, 7:00 p.m. PT
Game 5: @ Tri-City, Friday, April 4, 7:00 p.m. PT
Game 6: @ Victoria, Sunday, April 6, 3:05 p.m. PT
Game 7: @ Victoria, Monday, April 7, 7:05 p.m. PT

Keys To Success

With Tri-City, their keys to success will be to insert their physicality and use their size to their advantage to wear down the Royals.

Tri-City, for some odd reason, has not played to how their roster is built this season. However, when they do, they are very good. If the Americans can insert their physicality with being the biggest team in the league and be somewhat intimidating. In that case, Tri-City will make life very difficult for the Royals, and it could show by games four, five, and so on if the series goes that far. Breaking down the Royals is going to be the biggest key to winning this series for the Americans.

If Tri-City can gain some life on the power play as well in this series, which has started to gain some traction over the last few games of the regular season, that could add some spice to the series. Tri-City is 2/13 on the power play against Victoria this season, which is good enough for around 15%. Overall, the Americans power play finished at 17.4% on the season, which is the worst in the Western Conference and third worst in the league and has been a big focus point for the coaching staff this season.

One more key thing that Tri-City will need to do to find success is to stay away from penalties as Victoria has one of the best power play units in the league and find a way to keep the puck out of the hands of Cole Reschny for as long as possible.

For Victoria, controlling possession and just getting shots on net, along with blue-line scoring, will guarantee them this series. The Royals no doubt have the more skilled group, and if they can overwhelm Tri-City in their own end, should make quick work of the Americans in this series.

Victoria will also get their chances on the power play; unnecessary penalties have been a big issue for Tri-City and cost them multiple games this season. If Victoria can take advantage of the opportunities that are more than likely to come, the second-best power play unit in the league will make this series easy work if they can capitalize, and with the second-best power play in the WHL this regular season, it is also hard to say they won’t capitalize.

Tri-City Key Players

Player-wise, Lukas Matecha in the net for Tri-City is going to be one of the most pivotal factors in this series. If Matecha is at his best, Tri-City will have a shot in this series, plain and simple, but if not, Tri-City will be out of this series quickly. Matecha is at the top of the WHL in most shots faced per night compared to any other goaltender in the league, averaging 34 shots a game. Matecha on the year appeared in 49 games, is 26-16-3-1 and has a 3.55 Goals Allowed Average and .900 Save Percentage.

Top NHL Draft Prospect, Defenseman Jackson Smith, will be crucial at the blue line and on special teams. Smith is an elite two-way player, leading the power play, while also being a shutdown defenseman with great IQ and puck management. He had 54 points, including nine goals in the last eleven games of the regular season. Smith had more than double that of the next closest Americans defenseman, Austin Zemlak, who had 25 total points.

Czech Import and Colorado Avalanche Prospect Max Curran will be the forward to look out for if you are the Royals. Curran has the ability to make something out of nothing with his playmaking skill set, arguably the best on the team, along with having the most points on the Americans this season with 74. Curran is riding into the playoffs on an eight-game point streak and will be the biggest impact forward on the team.

Victoria Key Players

Victoria has done a very good job of spreading the love around, with many players contributing to their success all season. But here are a few game-breakers that will make life even harder for the Americans in this series.

Another top NHL draft prospect this summer, Forward Cole Reschny, who finished atop the Royals in points with 92, is a masterclass playmaker. He is Houdini with the puck, along with his elite edgework, you don’t know what he will do when he has the puck in his hands and will give Americans defensemen lots to think about.

The blue line for Victoria has contributed plenty this year, with three defensemen posting at least 45 points. Those three being Rookie Keaton Verhoeff, a Utah Hockey Club prospect Justin Kipkie, and San Jose Sharks prospect Nate Misskey. If these three can continue their contributions in the playoffs, this high-scoring squad will be very hard to beat.

Prediction

In reality, Victoria should dominate this series, and considering everything, the Royals will clean this series up in five games. Matecha realistically will not be able to stop the constant barrage of Victoria consistently over the course of seven games. Along with that, Tri-City has been very inconsistent with scoring, compared to other series in the Western Conference; this one has the highest likelihood of a sweep.

Keep it locked in Area 51 for more WHL Playoff coverage!