Boston is the perfect location for a card as stacked as UFC 292.
Two title fights cap off the night with the main event hosting one of the most exciting fighters in the world, ‘Suga’ Sean O’Malley, and one of the best bantamweights in UFC history in Aljamain Sterling. Just before that, my female P4P number 1, Zhang Weili, is going to face a tough test in Amanda Lemos.
In the spirit of Boston, the city with some of the most titles in pro sports, we’ve got two more titles on the line. In the bantamweight finale of The Ultimate Fighter season 31, Canadian Brad Katona will try to become a two-time champ against Cody Gibson. In the lightweight finale, it’s two Team Chandler strikers: Kurt Holobaugh and Austin Hubbard.
We’ve also got a few other notable appearances throughout the rest of the card. Chris Weidman will make his highly anticipated return following his brutal injury a couple years ago. Marlon ‘Chito’ Vera and Ian Machado Garry will try and make big statements to secure a title shot. Finally, there’s another interesting storyline in Da’Mon Blackshear who’s coming back after fighting on the last UFC card on August 12th! BLÜ provides his best bets for all of these matchups (plus more) below along with the Bet99 Sportsbook Odds.
To follow BLÜ’s Best Betting System, simply put 1.00 Units on each of the bets below unless otherwise specified. When these bets are combined with the Sniper Pick and the parlays below, profits can be maximized and losses can be minimized. Nothing is ever a guarantee, but BLÜ’s goal is to bring consistent profit to the viewers over the long term and constantly refine his system.
Due to the unpredictable nature of betting sites like Bet99 and the sport of MMA, odds will likely change throughout the week and may be unavailable for some of these bets at the time this article is posted. This also means that BLÜ may opt to swap a couple of these bets out on Friday night for others in order to maximize profit. The results of BLÜ’s Best Bets will be covered on ‘BLÜ’s Best Bets’, live on BLÜ’s Twitter (@BLBEARD2), the Area 51 Sports Network Twitter (@Area51SportsNet) and on YouTube (BLU-FC) next Wednesday at 4:00 PM (PST).
BLU’s Prelim Picks (Prelims begin at 4:00 PM PST)
Maryna Moroz vs. Karine Silva
BET99 Odds
Moroz: +120 Silva: -148
Over 2.5: -132 Under 2.5: +105
These two are simply on different trajectories currently. Moroz hasn’t been all that active and hasn’t really stood out as a rising contender. As for Silva, she’s young, she’s active and she’s absolutely demolished her opponents so far. Also, from what I’ve seen, Silva is a much more dangerous fighter that’s capable of getting a finish.
BLÜ’s Best Bets
Karine Silva at -148
Under 2.5 Rounds at +105
Andrea Lee vs. Natália Silva
BET99 Odds
Lee: +250 Silva: -334
Over 2.5: -200 Under 2.5: +154
Much like the Silva before her, she’s just on another level when it comes to skill and pace. Lee has struggled with getting hit before against much slower people. Silva will be able to overwhelm Lee and could very well get a finish.
BLÜ’s Best Bets
Natália Silva by Decision at +108
Under 2.5 Rounds at +154
Gerald Meerschaert vs. Andre Petroski
BET99 Odds
Meerschaert: +185 Petroski: -234
Over 1.5: -134 Under 1.5: +105
Over the years, Meerschaert has been one of the most unpredictable fighters on the entire roster. Sometimes he’ll look like he doesn’t belong in the UFC and sometimes, out of absolutely nowhere, he’ll do the same thing to someone else and look like he’s in the top 15. With Petroski being so much younger and bigger while also possessing a wide range of skills, I have to side with him. We also have to take a look at the Under 1.5 considering Gerald’s track record.
BLÜ’s Best Bets
Andre Petroski by Finish at -129
Under 1.5 Rounds at +105
The Ultimate Fighter 31: Bantamweight Finale
Cody Gibson vs. Brad Katona
BET99 Odds
Odds unavailable at time of post
Ever since the season started, the top 2 contenders always looked like Timur Valiev and Brad Katona. With Katona eliminating Valiev convincingly in the semifinals, he should be able to become the first two-time TUF champion.
BLÜ’s Best Bets
Brad Katona by Finish (Odds unavailable at time of post)
Under 2.5 Rounds (Odds unavailable at time of post)
The Ultimate Fighter 31: Lightweight Finale
Kurt Holobaugh vs. Austin Hubbard
BET99 Odds
Holobaugh: +142 Hubbard: -175
Over 2.5: -163 Under 2.5: +125
This matchup seems much closer than other TUF final. Both guys have looked good and well-rounded for the whole show. The difference is that Hubbard has looked liken the cleaner striker and is younger. He also had a much more impressive UFC run than Holobaugh did. With Hubbard looking better and being 5 years younger, I’ll also take a chance at the Under 2.5.
BLÜ’s Best Bets
Austin Hubbard at -175
Under 2.5 Rounds at +125
Gregory Rodrigues vs. Denis Tiuliulin
BET99 Odds
Rodrigues: -350 Tiuliulin: +275
Over 1.5: +140 Under 1.5: -180
Both of these men enjoy getting in brawls. With that being almost inevitable, you have to respect the much larger, more powerful and more skilled man: ‘Robocop’ Rodrigues. To reduce those odds, we’ll look into their past results. Tiuliulin has been submitted multiple times and Rodrigues is a champion in BJJ with multiple subs on his record.
With all that said, these two have shown some durability and have shown a bit of restraint in the past. Perhaps we can take scrape by all the way to the third minute of Round 2.
BLÜ’s Best Bets
Gregory Rodrigues by Submission at +210
Over 1.5 Rounds at +140
Chris Weidman vs. Brad Tavares
BET99 Odds
Weidman: +214 Tavares: -275
Over 1.5: -209 Under 1.5: +160
I think the betting line makes a lot of sense considering the circumstances of Weidman. His last fight was a couple years ago where he was the recipient of one of the worst injuries in the history of the UFC. Before that, he had just beaten the 20-4 Omari Akhmedov. Obviously that would make you lean more towards Tavares who’s been much more active and had a close fight with future title contender Dricus Du Plessis. That said, they both seem pretty even on paper and Weidman has a real story going right now. Why not take a chance and put a little bit down on one of the greatest comebacks in history?
A great way to balance out a hopeful Weidman bet is to ground it with some hard truth. The truth is that fighters who come back from catastrophic injuries, after years off… they tend to get finished quickly in their return. That makes for two very juicy betting lines.
BLÜ’s Best Bets
Chris Weidman (The Underdog) at +214
Under 1.5 Rounds at +160
Main Card (1:00 PM PST)
Marlon Vera vs. Pedro Munhoz
BET99 Odds
Vera: -200 Munhoz: +160
Over 2.5: -334 Under 2.5: +240
This is actually a much more interesting matchup than lot of casual fans would have you believe. ‘Chito’ Vera has the most finishes in the bantamweight division, making him very dangerous. However, Munhoz has never been finished. With Vera’s general fighting style being less aggressive, he could have a problem if this fight goes the distance. With his best chance to win being a finish, that gives us a couple of good prop bets to pick.
BLÜ’s Best Bets
Pedro Munhoz (The Underdog) at +160
Under 2.5 Rounds at +240
Mario Bautista vs. Da’Mon Blackshear
BET99 Odds
Bautista: -220 Blackshear: +175
Over 2.5: -116 Under 2.5: -110
We literally just saw Blackshear fighting LAST WEEK at the exact same weight. Not only that, he grabbed one of the only twisters in UFC history. That’s wildly impressive, but you can’t ignore the fact that he’s big and he’s making another weight cut while Bautista is a dangerous opponent. That made me run towards Bautista for my Tapology pick, but what Blackshear said about the situation was very interesting. He only said yes to this fight because of the way he matches up against Bautista. That comment, combined with the tape and their record, has made me consider a UFC record-breaking second win in 7 days.
Similar to what I said about Weidman, the stats would also support the opposite result: an early finish for Bautista.
BLÜ’s Best Bets
Da’Mon Blackshear (The Underdog) at +175
Under 2.5 Rounds at -110
Neil Magny vs. Ian Machado Garry
BET99 Odds
Magny: +375 Machado Garry: -500
Over 2.5: +116 Under 2.5: -150
Ian Garry was coming into this one ready to face a high level striker. He’s now facing an average striker who’s been slowly declining in performance recently. Magny is also coming in on a couple weeks notice after barely edging a win over a lesser opponent just a couple months ago. That sounds like a recipe for an Garry KO. There’s a chance he’ll try to prove his new Brazilian submission skills, but it would be a much smarter gameplan to just stay on the feet where he has the obvious advantage.
All that said, both men have been known to have longer fights, it wouldn’t be surprising if it crept into round 3 or ended in a decision.
BLÜ’s Best Bets
Ian Machado Garry by KO at +120
Over 2.5 Rounds at +116
Co-Main Event (Strawweight Title Fight)
Zhang Weili vs. Amanda Lemos
BET99 Odds
Weili: -334 Lemos: +260
Over 3.5: +166 Under 3.5: -217
Weili is still my number 1 female pound-for-pound fighter in the UFC. She’s easily the best athlete on the roster, she’s also possibly the most well-rounded and VERY intelligent. Since she’s so smart, it seems like the best idea would be to take Lemos down and submit her. Considering Weili’s ridiculous grappling ability, and her fighting pace in general, an early finish for either woman seems likely. To get specific, a submission for Weili seems to make the most sense given Lemos’ history.
BLÜ’s Best Bets
Zhang Weili by Submission at +433
Under 2.5 Rounds (Odds unavailable at time of post)
Main Event (Bantamweight Title Fight)
Aljamain Sterling vs. Sean O’Malley
BET99 Odds
Sterling: -260 O’Malley: +200
Over 3.5: +120 Under 3.5: -150
I’ve stated before that I believe Sterling is likely the best bantamweight of all time and he should probably win in this matchup. That said, with all these circumstances, especially in this kind of matchup, it’s hard not to put a bit of money on ‘Suga’ Sean. He’s one of the best striker’s on the roster and he’s matched up against someone who hasn’t looked the best on his feet. Not only that, it’s only been a couple months since he fought against one of the most accomplished MMA fighters of all time in Henry Cejudo.
Although most people are expecting a quick finish… and that’s what I’ll be hoping for as a fan. It is known that both of these guys have great defence and durability. That leads me to believe that there’s a very real chance this fight could drift into the later rounds. Just remember that Yan and Sterling couldn’t finish each other and ‘Suga’ is very similar to Yan.
BLÜ’s Best Bets
Sean O’Malley (The Underdog) at +200
Over 3.5 Rounds at +120
Parlay Opportunities
The Triple Play
Garry + Weili + N. Silva (1.00 Units at +102)
The Grand Slam
Garry + N. Silva + K. Silva + Rodrigues (0.50 Units at +236)
The Sniper Pick
Ian Machado Garry at -500 for 5.00 Units
