International Fight Week is here and its peak will be UFC 290, headlined by Alexander Volkanovski and Yair Rodriguez.
One title wasn’t enough for such a big week; there’s a second in the co-main event and it’s just as exciting. Brandon Moreno and Alexandre Pantoja will face off for the third time and now it’s for the highest stakes of all: the flyweight belt. Filling out the ‘international’ part of International Fight Week are some of the best fighters from Africa, Australia and New Zealand. None bigger than the fight between Aussie phenom, Robert Whittaker, and the South African powerhouse Dricus Plessis just before those titles are put on the line. Other men from those regions include Dan Hooker, Jimmy Crute, Cameron Saaiman and Shannon Ross.
That wasn’t enough for the UFC this week, they also brought some of their best rising prospects. None have been more anticipated than Bo Nickal, but Tatsuro Taira, Yazmin Jauregui and Vitor Petrino have all stood out. Finally, on a sadder note, we’ll also be seeing the retirement fight for the legendary Robbie Lawler. BLÜ provides his best bets for all of these matchups (plus more) below along with the Bet99 Sportsbook Odds.
To follow BLÜ’s Best Betting System, simply put 1.00 Units on each of the bets below unless otherwise specified. When these bets are combined with the Sniper Pick and the parlays below, profits can be maximized and losses can be minimized. Nothing is ever a guarantee, but BLÜ’s goal is to bring consistent profit to the viewers over the long term and constantly refine his system.
Due to the unpredictable nature of betting sites like Bet99 and the sport of MMA, odds will likely change throughout the week and may be unavailable for some of these bets at the time this article is posted. This also means that BLÜ may opt to swap a couple of these bets out on Friday night for others in order to maximize profit. The results of BLÜ’s Best Bets will be covered on ‘BLÜ’s Best Bets’, live on BLÜ’s Twitter (BLBEARD2), the Area 51 Sports Network Twitter (Area51SportsNet) and on YouTube (BLU-FC) next Wednesday at 4:00 PM (PST).
BLU’s Prelim Picks (Prelims begin at 3:30 PM PST)
Kamuela Kirk vs. Esteban Ribovics
BET99 Odds
Kirk: +122 Ribovics: -150
Over 2.5: +150 Under 2.5: -193
Although these two seem pretty evenly matched on paper, there are a couple of pretty significant factors in Ribovics’ favour. Ribovics is 11-1 with that lone loss coming in his last fight: his UFC debut. Normally that’s not a great sign, but that was against a VERY impressive Loik Radzhabov and he survived all 3 rounds and looked alright doing it. While Kirk has a UFC win, all of his previous fights have been at 145 pounds and he was already having some problems getting controlled and getting knocked out. Ribovics is simply much larger, more active and seems to be more well-rounded. With that size and power advantage, I wouldn’t be surprised if we saw a finish, especially given their past.
BLÜ’s Best Bets
Esteban Ribovics at -150
Under 2.5 Rounds at -193
Shannon Ross vs. Jesus Aguilar
BET99 Odds
Ross: +116 Aguilar: -145
Over 2.5: +110 Under 2.5: -140
Ross has proven he’s got no quit in him, getting smashed by some pretty heavy hitters in the flyweight division. Aguilar isn’t that kind fighter, he’s a dangerous grappler and submission artist. Unfortunately for Ross, he’s been submitted multiple times in his career. What makes Aguilar even more convincing as a favourite is the fact that he had Tatsuro Taira, another submission ace fighting later on the card, stuck in a submission for a few minutes straight. Thanks to that, I have to believe Aguilar has a better chance of winning this fight.
Much like the first prelim, these two have grabbed a lot of finishes and have also both been finished. That leads me to believe we’ll likely see a finish here as well.
BLÜ’s Best Bets
Jesus Aguilar at -145
Under 2.5 Rounds at -140
Cameron Saaiman vs. Terrence Mitchell
BET99 Odds
Saaiman: -567 Mitchell: +400
Over 1.5: +133 Under 1.5: -172
This was a VERY last minute change of opponents for Saaiman, expecting to fight a MUCH higher level opponent. Mitchell has only really fought on the Alaskan regional scene except for a 30 second KO loss on The Ultimate Fighter in 2016. With Saaiman being a pretty impressive, dangerous striker, I’d be shocked if Saaiman didn’t get an early finish. To bring those odds down, I’ll be taking the KO prop bet given those gaps in striking.
BLÜ’s Best Bets
Cameron Saaiman by KO at -167
Under 1.5 Rounds at -172
Vitor Petrino vs. Marcin Prachnio
BET99 Odds
Petrino: -250 Prachnio: +200
Over 1.5: +105 Under 1.5: -134
At one point, Prachnio was knocked out in the 1st Round of three fights in a row. He’s now taking on a powerhouse with multiple early KOs. Given Petrino’s edges in skill, power, speed and age, this is looking pretty rough for Prachnio. To help lower those odds, we’ll take a Petrino KO and the Under 1.5 betting lines.
BLÜ’s Best Bets
Vitor Petrino by KO at -138
Under 1.5 Rounds at -134
Edgar Cháirez vs. Tatsuro Taira
BET99 Odds
Cháirez: +650 Taira: -1100
Over 1.5: +108 Under 1.5: -137
There’s a reason Taira is at -1100 right now; he’s huge, has cardio, decent striking and some of the best grappling in the division. Although I believe Cháirez should be given a bit more respect than +650, I can’t argue the fact that he should be an underdog here. He’s been submitted a couple of times outside the UFC and lost on the Contender Series while Taira is an undefeated submission ace. With that, we’ll have to lower those odds again and pick Taira to win in the 1st Round and picking his favourite method to win: a submission.
BLÜ’s Best Bets
Tatsuro Taira in Round 1 at +100
Tatsuro Taira by Submission at -240
Jimmy Crute vs. Alonzo Menifield
BET99 Odds
Crute: -140 Menifield: +114
Over 2.5: +200 Under 2.5: -260
This is actually a rematch of a fight that just happened earlier this year and ended in a majority draw. In that fight we saw an insanely tough Crute take a LOT of damage, really putting on a show for his fellow Australians. Ultimately it ended in a draw due to a point deduction from Menifield. Since this fight isn’t in Australia, Crute took a beating about 6 months ago and Menifield lost due to a point deduction, Menifield is clearly a live dog.
It’s a tad strange that the Under 2.5 is favoured when there was a decision in their last meeting. Considering there was no finish last time, you have to take advantage of the +200 line.
BLÜ’s Best Bets
Alonzo Menifield (The Underdog) at +114
Over 2.5 Rounds at +200
Yazmin Jauregui vs. Denise Gomes
BET99 Odds
Jauregui: -400 Gomes: +300
Over 2.5: -158 Under 2.5: +122
Jauregui has been one of the most impressive young prospects of the last couple years. Gomes has looked okay as well, but Yasmin has dropped all of her UFC opponents so far, looking like one of the most dangerous female strikers on the roster. To take advantage of the odds, we’ll have to get more specific and go for a Jauregui KO. Since Gomes is tough and will likely employ a lot of grappling, we’ll balance that out by taking Over 2.5 at -158.
BLÜ’s Best Bets
Yazmin Jauregui by KO at +166
Over 2.5 Rounds at -158
Robbie Lawler vs. Niko Price
BET99 Odds
Lawler: +190 Price: -240
Over 2.5: +133 Under 2.5: -172
With this being Lawler’s retirement fight and with Price looking somewhat flat recently, I have to side with the former champ and underdog, Robbie Lawler. It’s also interesting that the Under 2.5 is favoured when both of these men are so durable. That gives us two pretty clear picks for this matchup.
BLÜ’s Best Bets
Robbie Lawler (The Underdog) at +190
Over 2.5 Rounds at +133
Main Card (7:00 PM PST)
Bo Nickal vs. Val Woodburn
BET99 Odds
Nickal: -2500 Woodburn: +1000
Over 1.5: +300 Under 1.5: -434
Woodburn is coming in against the highly-touted Nickal on less than a week’s notice. There’s no doubt Nickal is going to win, barring a miracle for Woodburn, which means we have to get creative to find some good bets. We’ve seen Nickal’s grappling ability in the UFC, but most people haven’t seen his striking. However, if you HAVE, he’s also got an incredible KO outside of the UFC thanks to his striking. With Woodburn’s submission defense, I wouldn’t be shocked to see Nickal opt for a KO instead. Also, since Woodburn is undefeated, maybe he’ll be Nickal’s toughest fight to date, lasting into the 2nd Round.
BLÜ’s Best Bets
Bo Nickal by KO at +214
Bo Nickal in Round 2 at +350
Dan Hooker vs. Jalin Turner
BET99 Odds
Hooker: +233 Turner: -300
Over 1.5: -116 Under 1.5: -110
At weigh-ins friday, Turner missed weight and really didn’t look too great. It’s uncommon to rely solely on things like this, but it’s certainly not a good omen when this was already a close fight. Hooker is on the rebound and looks like a new man while Turner is already looking defeated. That said, they’re both durable guys, with it set at Over/Under 1.5, we have to take the Over 1.5.
BLÜ’s Best Bets
Dan Hooker (The Underdog) at +233
Over 1.5 Rounds at -116
Robert Whittaker vs. Dricus Du Plessis
BET99 Odds
Whittaker: -375 DDP: +280
Over 2.5: +128 Under 2.5: -163
Whittaker has cemented himself as the clear number 2 man in the middleweight division. That said, when he gets hit clean, it doesn’t always end well for him. Normally that’s okay, but DDP has been able to hit everyone clean so far and will risk anything to get it done. With DDP carrying knockout power into all 3 rounds, why not take a chance on the underdog?
With Whittaker’s usual style, he almost exclusively ends his fights with decisions. Although DDP almost always grabs a finish, Brad Tavares managed to withstand the onslaught a couple years ago. May as well take a stab at Over 2.5.
BLÜ’s Best Bets
Dricus Du Plessis (The Underdog) at +280
Over 2.5 Rounds at +128
Co-Main Event (Flyweight Title Fight)
Brandon Moreno vs. Alexandre Pantoja
BET99 Odds
Moreno: -213 Pantoja: +171
Over 3.5: 163 Under 3.5: +128
These two have fought twice already and Pantoja has won both times. That makes it strange that Pantoja is an underdog this weekend. In spite of that, especially in a 5 round fight, it makes sense that Moreno is the favourite given his recent fights with Figueiredo. With Pantoja always employing such an aggressive and dangerous grappling style, he’s always live for a submission win. On the other hand, if Moreno can withstand the grappling, Pantoja is going to have a tough time keeping up with the striking. With both of these being such likely outcomes, may as well put a small bet on both.
BLÜ’s Best Bets
Alexandre Pantoja by Submission at +375
Brandon Moreno by KO at +200
Main Event (Featherweight Title Fight)
Alexander Volkanovski vs. Yair Rodriguez
BET99 Odds
Volkanovski: -400 Rodriguez: +300
Over 4.5: -110 Under 4.5: -117
With multiple wild KOs and subs, Yair is most definitely one of the biggest challenges Volkanovski has faced in his UFC career. While that’s true, Volk has consistently been one of the smartest, most dominant fighters on the roster, never really even getting hurt in the vast majority of his fights. It’s because of the fight IQ, durability and consistency that I will always pick Volkanovski. In order to lower those odds, we have to go to Volk’s standard method of victory: a dominant 5 round decision.
Statistically speaking, it’s VERY rare for a 5 round fight to end in the 5th round. That makes the Under 3.5 betting line much more enticing than the Under 4.5. It also means if Volk gets an early win or Yair shocks the world, we’ll still cash in.
BLÜ’s Best Bets
Alexander Volkanovski by Decision at +105
Under 3.5 Rounds (Odds Unavailable at time of post)
Parlay Opportunities
The Triple Play
Cameron Saaiman + Tatsuro Taira + Bo Nickal (1.00 Units at -299)
The Grand Slam
Cameron Saaiman + Bo Nickal + Vitor Petrino + Yazmin Jauregui (0.50 Units at +114)
The Sniper Pick
Cameron Saaiman at -567 for 6.00 Units
