Over the last five NFL seasons, the Kansas City Chiefs have been to four Super Bowls, winning three. In each of those three wins, Chiefs quarterback, Patrick Mahomes was named MVP. Since entering the league in 2017, the only quarterbacks to beat Mahomes in the playoffs are the Bengals’ Joe Burrow, and retiree, Tom Brady. If the Chiefs have not yet completed their dynasty, another Super Bowl in 2024 must cement this run as such.
Arguments against a Chiefs three-peat this season seem to go to off the field issues. Their best wide receiver, Rashee Rice was arrested and charged after a high-profile car accident in April. This has not been legally settled, and there is still a chance Rice may be suspended from play this year. Even the kicker, Harrison Butker, was making headlines this offseason, and not for the right reasons. Butker’s bold commentary turned him into the most politically controversial football player since Colin Kaepernick.
Last year’s championship roster remains mostly intact. While they lost a quality DB in L’jarius Sneed to free-agency, Mahomes and the Chiefs have proven they can stay on top even after losing star players. Not to mention, this is the second season in a row where there was loud chatter regarding off the field issues. This time last year, all anyone talked about was Travis Kelce’s lovelife, and DT Chris Jones’ tumultuous contract negotiation. None of this mattered when they lifted the Lombardi in February.
So, can anyone dethrone them? We believe there are 5 teams in the AFC who have some chance to uproot KC in the playoffs. Does that mean that any of these teams should be favoured over the Chiefs? No, but that doesn’t mean that the Chiefs should be favoured over the field. Here is the field, ranked:
5. New York Jets
While the 2023 Jets collapsed following Aaron Rodgers’ swift season ending injury, things are looking up for the 2024 group. Rodgers is presumably healthy, and he has a slew of young offensive weapons, as well as a newly renovated offensive line.
Last season, the Jets boasted a defensive unit that ranked 12th in all of football, which is doubly impressive considering how dire things were without Rodgers on the other side of the ball. This season, the defense projects to be top 10, if not top 5 – and not just because of morale. The unit is stout, and with expected improvement from players like Will Mcdonald and Sauce Gardner, even the Chiefs will have a hard time finding weaknesses to expose.
The key for the Jets against the Chiefs is Rodgers. Rodgers, in the twilight of his career, has shown for two decades that he can go head to head against any quarterback. 2 of the 3 Mahomes playoff losses came against Tom Brady in his 40s. Maybe Mahomes’ kryptonite is 40-year-old hall of fame quarterbacks. If so, Rodgers fits the bill.
4. Houston Texans
The Texans are loaded with weapons, on both sides of the ball. They have three excellent wide receivers, now including Stefon Diggs. They added a former Pro-Bowl back in Joe Mixon, and are led by a budding star quarterback, C.J Stroud. The defense is improved, having added edge-rusher Danielle Hunter, who will compliment former 3rd overall pick Will Anderson Jr. on the defensive line.
The Texans are a good pick to lead the NFL in Pro-Bowlers. There is ample star-talent on the roster, and head coach DeMeco Ryans will look to continue building a winning culture, now heading into his second season as bench-boss.
Why aren’t they higher on this list, if the roster is so stacked? Again, it comes down to the quarterback; You may be detecting a theme. C.J Stroud doesn’t match up well against Patrick Mahomes. He is fresh, and hasn’t shown that he can go pound for pound against a heavyweight QB just yet. Perhaps Stroud can disprove this in 2024. If he does, and Houston can outlast KC, it would be hard to find another roster that can match up with the Texans, in either conference.
3. Buffalo Bills
This offseason, Buffalo traded the aforementioned Stefon Diggs to Houston. They drafted a promising Keon Coleman at receiver, attempting to fill Diggs’ shoes, but the team also lost some important defensive players to free agency. There is not much hill to stand on in arguing that the Bills are a better team than the Texans. That being said, their quarterback is an absolute game changer.
Josh Allen has gone toe to toe with Mahomes in the playoffs, and looked good doing it. Mahomes has won all three of their playoff matches, but he has at least once been outplayed by Allen.
More than most, Josh Allen is due for a win against the Chiefs, and is far too talented of a player to not touch a Super Bowl. There are legitimate questions about the 2024 Bills, but Allen is the kind of talent who can win important football games, regardless of the weapons around him.
2. Cincinnati Bengals
Joe Burrow is the lone active QB that has defeated Mahomes in the playoffs – but he is not the only reason why Cincinnati has a chance to do it again.
This Bengals team disappointed last season, battling injuries and missing the playoffs. It is hard to think of a group that is hungrier for some redemption.
Their skill position talent is in the upper echelon of the NFL, as it has been for years. Assuming that receivers Tee Higgins and Ja’Marr Chase are happy and healthy, the offense will be immensely hard to handle. Higgins and Chase are a duo that can make the Chiefs regret losing Sneed in the secondary.
Cincinnati is talented and experienced on both sides of the ball, and will have an excellent home-field advantage in the playoffs if they can obtain it. A potential strategy for getting past the Chiefs will be using their bruising back, Zack Moss, to wear down the defense, then attacking the secondary with big plays near the end of the game. Alternatively, the Bengals strategy could be hoping that this next team takes down the Chiefs, before they’d have to.
1. Baltimore Ravens
Baltimore may be the only AFC team with an argument for being better than Kansas City. Many thought they would take down Kansas City in the 2023 AFC Championship, and many were disapointed when they fell short. This year, there are no excuses.
Baltimore’s defense was far and away the best in the league last season. They lost linebacker Patrick Queen in free-agency, but otherwise, the dominant defensive group will look to run it back this year. Players like Justin Madubuike, Roquan Smith, and Kyle Hamilton inspire fear in opposing quarterbacks, even a Patrick Mahomes.
Then, the offense. Led by MVP Lamar Jackson at quarterback, who looks like a superhero in the regular season, the offense features Mark Andrews and Derrick Henry, two veteran All-Pro playmakers at the end of their respective primes. Jackson also has a pair of young pass-catchers in Zay Flowers and Isaiah Likely, both with “future Pro-Bowler” written all over them.
If Lamar Jackson can play just a little bit better in the playoffs this year, the Ravens can win it all, and maybe should be favored too. His defense has historically given the Chiefs offense a hard time, and the front office has crafted this team meticulously to contend for a Super Bowl. Never has there been more pressure for a player to get the job done than there is for Jackson this season.
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