The Vancouver Whitecaps are in the endgame now.
Seven matches remain on the MLS schedule for Vancouver. There is also the Canadian Championship final on September 25 against Toronto FC. Whitecaps head coach Vanni Sartini and the players have stressed that that game is very important. There are good reasons for that. They have the chance to win the Voyageurs Cup for the third year in a row and qualify for the CONCACAF Champions Cup again.
But let’s focus on the MLS stretch. The Western Conference is tighter than ever, like a playoff game.
A lot can change between now and Decision Day but it looks like LA Galaxy are the front runners to win the West. It’s crazy to think the Whitecaps are just three points behind second place LAFC but also a point above the Houston Dynamo for seventh place. That is the final playoff spot, while eight and nine qualify for the play-in round.
Speaking of Houston, they are next. The Whitecaps head down to the home of NASA on Wednesday. Fortunately, they have an MLS-era record-tying seven road wins this season and have the fourth-best home record in MLS and the Western Conference.
However, the Dynamo seem like a dark horse team this season. After all, they smashed Real Salt Lake 4-1 last week and beat the Whitecaps 4-3 at BC Place on July 20.
The Whitecaps numbers heading into the final stretch
The Whitecaps stats show that they are a good team and could do some damage in the playoffs.
According to FootballReference, the Whitecaps are tied for 10th in MLS with 45 goals. They are also tied for 13th in expected goals with 42.1 and are 12th in non-penalty xG with 40.5 Last season, Vancouver’s xG was amongst the highest in the league and they couldn’t outperform it. This year, they are but just by a little bit.
According to FotMob, the Whitecaps average 6.4 accurate crosses which is the most in MLS. The data shows that they have been quietly one of the better defensive teams. Vancouver is sixth in clearances per match with 19.4 and has conceded the fifth least goals conceded goals per match with 1.3. They also have conceded just 35 times this season and that is seventh least in MLS.
It also turns out, that the Whitecaps are good at limiting opposing chances and high quality chances. That is impressive.
The remaining schedule
After Houston, the Whitecaps play LA Galaxy away, Portland Timbers, Seattle Sounders, Minnesota United and LAFC at home. Then, they close out the season with LAFC and Real Salt Lake away.
That is a tough run of games. Vancouver has the second toughest remaining schedule out of all teams in the West according to PlayoffStatus.Com. Only Austin FC has the tougher schedule.
The playoffs are very likely. The Whitecaps have a 94% chance to make the postseason according to PlayoffStatus. But in the crazy league that is MLS, nothing is certain, even with those odds.
For the Whitecaps, it is not just about making the playoffs anymore.
“The playoffs … It’s the minimum,” said Sartini after the 0-0 draw to FC Dallas on September 7 per JJ Adams of The Province. “Top seven is the minimum, top seven is a sufficient season. Top four is a good season… (But) we need to be there (in the playoffs) and — boom, I put another card (on the table) — we need to win a round in the playoffs, because I’m fed up that, that we lose in the first round.”
Frankly, so are Whitecaps fans. One playoff win in the MLS era is a stat that haunts the club.
All their remaining opponents could be playoff opponents. This is probably the biggest stretch of games in the Whitecaps MLS era to date. Top four means home advantage in the best of three. Speaking of home, since many of the games are at home, it’s a good time to give the fans their money’s worth as the home record has been underwhelming.
Top four is very possible and given the talent they have, there is no reason why they can’t make it. Ryan Gauld and Andres Cubas (He may or may not be back on Wednesday from his shoulder injury) are among the best in their positions in MLS. White has proven to be a lethal striker, (he is out of concussion protocol) Fafa Picault has proven to be a key player and adding Stuart Armstrong adds more power and service in the attack.
Sartini has praised his team’s depth has made them stronger and how many players have stepped up. Every point is big going forward. While it won’t be easy, the Whitecaps will be looking to prove people wrong.
