By the looks of things, the Vancouver Whitecaps are having a great season.
They currently lead the Western Conference with a 14-4-6 record and 46 points. Vancouver is also second in the Supporters Shield race with eight points behind Nashville SC.
The Whitecaps have also scored 53 goals, and that is second in MLS behind Inter Miami’s 61. The blue and white have only conceded 23 goals, and that is the second-fewest in the league behind Nashville’s 21. Vancouver’s 37.7 expected goals also lead the league.
They lead MLS by a country mile in xG differential, which is at 35.3. The next team is the Philadelphia Union at 11.7. The’Caps lead the league in xG conceded (20.9), tackles per match (20.1), shots on target per match (6.4), touches in the opposition box (830), and possession won in the final third per match. (6.4)
The Whitecaps are on pace for a 65-point season, which should be enough to win the Western Conference. 65 points would be an MLS-era record for the club, breaking last year’s 63 points.
Brian White is tied for third in the MLS Golden Boot race with 15 goals. He is also second behind Lionel Messi in expected goals with 15.4. (Messi has 16.4 xG) Yohei Takaoka is third in MLS with 10 clean sheets, and Andres Cubas leads MLS in tackles per 90 minutes (5.3)
You would think things are all sunshine and roses for the Whitecaps. That is especially due to Ryan Gauld being back healthy and looking like his old self, and while he isn’t as dominant as last season, Thomas Müller is still putting up goal contributions.
Sure, on paper the Whitecaps are having a great season. But since the World Cup break, it has been a mixed bag, and there have been some concerns.
Frustration has set in.
Perhaps no game was as frustrating for the ‘Caps, the coaching staff and their fans this season as Sunday afternoon’s 2-1 loss to Austin FC at BC Place. The team had trouble breaking down Austin’s backline, Gauld hit the crossbar twice (one on a penalty), and they gave up two poor goals to Austin’s Christian Ramirez. There was also some really poor officiating, especially in the second half.
Whitecaps head coach Jesper Sørensen was clearly frustrated after the game, and he even picked up a yellow card for questioning a call made by referee Victor Rivas.
“You have the emotions going, and there are some things that don’t play out your way, and you would like to see if you could control maybe more than you actually can,” said Sørensen to the media after the game. “That’s obviously sometimes a little bit frustrating when things are not going according to what you hope for. And that’s normal. … You have to, of course, see if you can stay somewhat calm no matter what to see if you can help the team, right?”
Vancouver outshot Austin 20-4 in that game. They had six shots on target while Austin had two, which were the goals scored by Ramirez.
“It was a frustrating game,” said White after the loss. “I think we gave them two chances; they scored two goals. I think we had good opportunities to score, maybe weren’t able to capitalize on them as we would want. … It’s hard to really analyze it after just walking off the field. But, yeah, it’s definitely a frustrating result.”
The stats behind the Whitecaps post-World Cup inconsistency.
Let’s take a look at the Whitecaps stats since the World Cup Break. Since the break, Vancouver has amassed a 4-2-4 record in MLS with 14 points in 10 games. That is tied for 13th in MLS since the break with a 1.40 points-per-game rate. That PPG rate is tied for 13th in MLS.
Before the break, the ‘Caps were flying with a 10-2-2 record and with 32 points in 14 games and a 2.29 points per game rate. During that time period, they were second in MLS behind Nashville. The Whitecaps PPG rate before the break was second in MLS.
Since the World Cup break, the Whitecaps have scored 19 goals in 10 games. That puts them in a four-way tie for eighth in the league. If we do the math (goals scored divided by games played), that is a goals-per-game rate of 1.9. Before the break, Vancouver scored 34 goals in 14 games, which put them in a tie for third in MLS during that timespan. That is a GPG rate of 2.42. When it comes to goals conceded, the Blue and White gave up 11 goals in 10 games. That is sixth-lowest in MLS. That is a rate of 1.1 goals against per game. Before the break, the Whitecaps conceded 12 goals in 14 games, which was second-lowest in the league. The GAPG rate at that time for the ‘Caps is 0.85.
By looking at these numbers, there is a drop in form from before the World Cup break to after. However, it is not a massive fall-off as you might have thought. The concern is not the overall dip as much as the Whitecaps’ inconsistency in key moments. Is it concerning? Sure.
There is one stat that is concerning, and it is this one.
When the Whitecaps go down, they tend to struggle while chasing the game. When they have the lead (with the exception of the 3-1 home loss to St. Louis City SC on September 5), they tend to do way better. Clean sheets are also great, but you cannot get them all the time. The alarm bells are definitely going off when you see they haven’t won a game while conceding since the World Cup break.
What is to blame for the Whitecaps inconsistency?
Now, what is the cause of the Whitecaps and their inconsistency? There is more than one factor, but the main concern is how they respond when the game changes on them.
The departure of Sebastian Berhalter to Middlesbrough is one reason. His passing, defensive work and goals have been missed. Oliver Larraz has taken his place for the most part. Larraz hasn’t been bad at all. He has the defensive work rate and energy and is also a decent passer, but he isn’t at the level Berhalter was at. Jeevan Badwal can become another Berhalter, but he is still a work in progress as he is just 20. Berhalter didn’t become the player he is until he was about 24. Badwal has shown flashes, though. New signing Aleksa Cvetkovic also has a similar profile to Berhalter (minus the goal-scoring), but he is only 21 and will need time to settle in and get used to the system.
Losing Berhalter stung, but it was inevitable. But that isn’t the only reason for the Whitecaps struggles. Injuries have also played a part, as defenders Ralph Priso (though it seems he is close to returning) and Ranko Veselinovic have been sidelined. Belal Halbouni has been out with a knee injury since last November’s playoffs. As a result, Tristan Blackmon and Mathias Laborda have been the only healthy centerbacks. (With the exception of Sebastian Ramirez, who was signed on loan from Fortaleza, but he has yet to even make an appearance on the bench.) It seems Blackmon and Laborda can’t play together for long periods because the two of them have made costly mistakes, such as the two goals conceded against Austin.
Kwasi Poku was signed for striker depth, but he has been out with a hamstring injury. Winger/Attacking midfielder Kenji Cabrera is done for the year with a foot injury.
Of course, injuries aren’t an excuse. As mentioned, the defence shuts off at times, resulting in the Whitecaps conceding. As for the attack, sometimes it is good, and sometimes it is bad. Teams have figured out the Whitecaps, so they play in a low block. Low blocks have been kryptonite for the Whitecaps. When facing a low block, it is hard to generate scoring chances with many defenders in the box. Teams from around the world have trouble with low blocks, even the best in the world.
The condensed schedule also doesn’t help, as the club often plays games every three days. That results in rotated lineups. The team has enough depth to handle it; it’s just the execution that hasn’t worked.
Fans have the right to be frustrated. Expectations surrounding the Whitecaps are higher than ever before. The good news is the team is still top of the West and second in the league. But this is a crucial part of the season, and they cannot afford to fall off the rails.
Looking ahead
The Whitecaps play CF Montreal at Stade Saputo on Wednesday for the second leg of their Canadian Championship semi-final with the tie at 1-1. Then it is off to Sandy, Utah to take on Real Salt Lake on Saturday.
“We have to put on a good performance to be able to pull out of that game as a winner,” said Sørensen on Wednesday’s clash in Montreal.
Finding consistency is the biggest need for the Whitecaps as they continue their playoff push.
*Stats courtesy of FotMob, Fox Sports, SoccerStats and FootyStats.
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