Back once again in the hub of combat sports, it’s UFC Vegas 75, headlined by top middleweights Marvin Vettori and Jared Cannonier.
There aren’t too many big names on the card, but Arman Tsarukyan could be the most significant, looking like a lock to grab a devastating win over Joaquim Silva. We’ve also got some newer additions to the UFC trying to make some statements as well. This includes Christian Leroy Duncan, Lucas Almeida, Alessandro Costa, Christian Quiñonez, Denys Bondar and Tereza Bledá. BLÜ provides his best bets for all of these matchups (plus more) below along with the Bet99 Sportsbook Odds.
To follow BLÜ’s Best Betting System, simply put 1.00 Units on each of the bets below unless otherwise specified. When these bets are combined with the Sniper Pick and the parlays below, profits can be maximized and losses can be minimized. Nothing is ever a guarantee, but BLÜ’s goal is to bring consistent profit to the viewers over the long term and constantly refine his system.
Due to the unpredictable nature of betting sites like Bet99 and the sport of MMA, odds will likely change throughout the week and may be unavailable for some of these bets at the time this article is posted. This also means that BLÜ may opt to swap a couple of these bets out on Friday night for others in order to maximize profit. The results of BLÜ’s Best Bets will be covered on ‘BLÜ’s Best Bets’, live on BLÜ’s Twitter (@BLBEARD2), the Area 51 Sports Network Twitter (@Area51SportsNet) and on YouTube (BLU-FC) next Wednesday at 4:00 PM (PST).
BLU’s Prelim Picks (Prelims begin at 4:00 PM PST)
Modestas Bukauskas vs. Zac Pauga
BET99 Odds
Bukauskas: -193 Pauga: +157
Over 2.5: -184 Under 2.5: +142
Pauga hasn’t really wowed anyone with his performances so far in the UFC, grabbing his couple of wins along the fence with clinchwork. With Bukauskas’ edge in size, fight IQ, experience and his well-rounded skillset, he should be able to win this fight convincingly. Both men have a high number of decisions, but Pauga was slept on the TUF finale (albeit up at heavyweight) and Modestas has been known to grab some knockouts. May as well take a stab at that Under 2.5 at plus money.
BLÜ’s Best Bets
Modestas Bukauskas at -193
Under 2.5 Rounds at +142
Ronnie Lawrence vs. Daniel Argueta
BET99 Odds
Lawrence: -189 Argueta: +154
Over 2.5: -260 Under 2.5: +200
This one’s very similar to the last matchup. Lawrence has simply fought the tougher opponents and looked more dangerous doing it. He should be able to win this fight convincingly. Also, sitting at +200, there’s no reason not to take the Under 2.5 line on top of it.
BLÜ’s Best Bets
Ronnie Lawrence at -189
Under 2.5 Rounds at +200
Tereza Bledá vs. Gabriella Fernandes
BET99 Odds
Bledá: -240 Fernandes: +190
Over 2.5: -175 Under 2.5: +136
Bledá has already proven to be an extremely dangerous, relentless, HUGE grappler in her appearances. On the other side, while Fernandes is a great striker, she’s shown very little grappling ability. With the odds being so high on Bledá, we’ll have to balance it out by picking her to win by decision. Then, in case she grabs a sub or Fernandes gets the KO, we’ll also take Under 2.5 at +136.
BLÜ’s Best Bets
Tereza Bledá by Decision (Odds Unavailable at time of this writing)
Under 2.5 Rounds at +136
Carlos Hernandez vs. Denys Bondar
BET99 Odds
Hernandez: +108 Bondar: -132
Over 2.5: -186 Under 2.5: +145
What we’re likely seeing in this betting line is a result of Bondar’s unfortunate, freak injury in his last fight, combined with his long layoff. If it weren’t for that, Bondar would likely be a MUCH bigger favourite. He’s an incredibly skilled grappler with multiple submission wins and Hernandez was literally just submitted in his last fight. This seems like the perfect comeback fight for Bondar and I’m favouring a finish.
BLÜ’s Best Bets
Denys Bondar at -132
Under 2.5 Rounds at +145
Kyung Ho Kang vs. Cristian Quiñonez
BET99 Odds
Kang: +122 Quiñonez: -150
Over 2.5: -189 Under 2.5: +145
This betting line was a tad surprising when I first saw it. Kang has been around the UFC for a while and just beat a VERY impressive, young, rising fighter in Batgerel Danaa in his last fight. As for Quiñonez, he only has one fight in the UFC and was gifted a VERY early stoppage win by the ref against Khalid Taha. I’m not saying this is Kang’s fight to lose, but I’m more than willing to take a shot at the underdog when the circumstances seem pretty close. No matter which way it goes, there’s also a reasonable chance at seeing a finish, meaning, we’ll be taking the Under 2.5 as well.
BLÜ’s Best Bets
Kyung Ho Kang (The Underdog) at +122
Under 2.5 Rounds at +145
Jimmy Flick vs. Alessandro Costa
BET99 Odds
Flick: +210 Costa: -260
Over 2.5: +160 Under 2.5: -209
Once again, the betting line is a bit unusual here when you look at it on paper. Costa has not won in the UFC, getting finished by Albazi in his lone fight. He also didn’t grab a contract on the Contender Series, only barely edging a split decision win. As for Flick, he’s grabbed a finish over Cody Durden and is a very unorthodox, dangerous test. I’d say Costa has more ways of winning with his style, but, at +210, I have to take a chance on Jimmy ‘the Brick’ Flick.
Considering Flick’s complete lack of decisions on his record, this is one of the rare times I’ll be taking an Over/Under at a line like -209. That being said, if an Under 1.5 line shows up, I may take a stab there instead.
BLÜ’s Best Bets
Jimmy Flick (The Underdog) at +210
Under 2.5 Rounds at -209
Main Card (7:00 PM PST)
Muslim Salikhov vs. Nicolas Dalby
BET99 Odds
Salikhov: -193 Dalby: +154
Over 2.5: -175 Under 2.5: +136
This is one of favourite scenarios using this betting system. Salikhov is terrible when it comes to winning decisions, while Dalby is a decision machine. With Salikhov’s main path to victory being the Under 2.5 and Dalby likely getting the nod if it goes Over 2.5, the bets pick themselves. This scenario tends to be one that cashes in more than others.
BLÜ’s Best Bets
Nicolas Dalby (The Underdog) at +154
Under 2.5 at +136
Nikolas Motta vs. Manuel Torres
BET99 Odds
Motta: +150 Torres: -184
Over 1.5: +122 Under 1.5: -158
These guys are essentially a carbon-copy of each other. They both throw themselves into the fire right away every fight. While they likely both have a chance, from what I’ve seen, Torres is the far more technical and precise striker. With that, I’ll be taking Torres at -184. I considered taking the Under 1.5 at -158… but how often do we see Over 1.5 at +122? It’s a number that I can’t pass up on the off-chance these two decide to take a measured approach for once, knowing the test that is in front of them.
BLÜ’s Best Bets
Manuel Torres at -184
Over 1.5 at +122
Pat Sabatini vs. Lucas Almeida
BET99 Odds
Sabatini: -193 Almeida: +157
Over 2.5: +105 Under 2.5: -134
This is another betting line that I find fairly surprising. Sabatini, although he’s had a few wins in the UFC, hasn’t really fought anyone elite yet… except for Damon Jackson who knocked him out in a little over a minute. I can’t say Almeida has more experience, but he’s had the same level of competition, has grabbed many finishes and is 14-1 with his only loss coming to a tough fighter in Daniel Zellhuber. Might as well take a shot at the underdog with these odds.
Although it’s the favoured outcome, the odds of a finish Under 2.5 is still low enough that I’ll take it at -134.
BLÜ’s Best Bets
Lucas Almeida (The Underdog) at +157
Under 2.5 at -134
Christian Leroy Duncan vs. Armen Petrosyan
BET99 Odds
Duncan: -150 Petrosyan: +122
Over 2.5: -137 Under 2.5: +105
We haven’t been able to see much of Duncan in the UFC yet, but his appearances in Cage Warriors speak volumes of his striking ability. While we have seen Petrosyan, he hasn’t ever really looked like anything special and he’s been hit quite a bit. At -150, we’re getting a good price on Duncan. Also, with that many highlight reel finishes from Duncan, why not take a chance on the Under 2.5 at plus-money.
BLÜ’s Best Bets
Christian Leroy Duncan at -150
Under 2.5 at +105
Co-Main Event
Arman Tsarukyan vs. Joaquim Silva
BET99 Odds
Tsarukyan: -1100 Silva: +650
Over 1.5: +116 Under 1.5: -148
Truly, this is one of those matchups that you’d normally see outside of the UFC that simply does NOT get made here. This is nothing more than a massacre waiting to happen. Silva has been finished on multiple occasions by far lesser opponents. Not only that, Tsarukyan has continuously looked like a title challenger with multiple ranked wins and controversial losses to the best fighters on the planet. This is either an opportunity to go all-in on him as our Sniper Pick at -1100 or try and improve those odds by taking a chance on the prop bets.
BLÜ’s Best Bets
Arman Tsarukyan by KO at -128
Under 1.5 at -148
Main Event
Marvin Vettori vs. Jared Cannonier
BET99 Odds
Vettori: -125 Cannonier: +100
Over 4.5: -200 Under 4.5: +154
Based on what we’ve seen from Cannonier in his last couple fights, he just doesn’t have enough output to overcome someone like Vettori in a decision. That makes Vettori the easy pick in this matchup. Vettori never grabs finishes and never gets finished, making the Over 4.5 tempting. With that said, it’s a 5 round fight, Cannonier has power and Vettori has overwhelming pace. I’ll admit, it’s a bit of a long-shot, but at +154 I’ll take the Under.
BLÜ’s Best Bets
Marvin Vettori at -125
Under 4.5 at +154
Parlay Opportunities
The Triple Play
Arman Tsarukyan + Tereza Bledá + Christian Leroy Duncan (1.00 Units at +157)
The Grand Slam
Arman Tsarukyan + Christian Leroy Duncan + Modestas Bukauskas + Ronnie Lawrence (0.50 Units at +322)
The Sniper Pick
Arman Tsarukyan at -1100 for 11 Units
